Census prep vital to states' power -- why some could miss out

 

Connecting state and local government leaders

Less than a 2 percent difference in the 2020 population count could mean gaining or losing a congressional seat.

This article originally appeared in Stateline, an initiative of the Pew Charitable Trusts.

MORE INFO

How local governments ensure an accurate census

To get an accurate list of addresses to work from, the Census Bureau enlists the help of state and local governments to update what it has on file. Read more.

Tech already saving Census time and money

The Census Bureau is depending on technology to conduct a more efficient population count. Read more.

Census uncertainty spurs state action to prevent undercounting

To ensure that all their residents get counted, states are coming up with creative solutions to verify the Census Bureau's residential address list. Read more.

Census mapping tool shows low-response areas

The Response Outreach Area Mapper can help government officials and community leaders tailor their outreach to encourage participation in the 2020 count. Read more.

For states, counting every resident in the census is like hunting for coins under the sofa cushions. Added together, those people equal real money in the form of federal dollars -- not to mention more seats in the U.S. Congress.

Avoiding an undercount requires a lot of outreach to the people deemed hardest to count. Among them: those who may be suspicious of or hostile to the government, racial and ethnic minorities, people with limited English, undocumented immigrants, people who are low-income or homeless, young people who move often, small children and LGBTQ individuals.

U.S. Census Bureau workers will do the actual counting next year, but states can help locate residents with new addresses, and encourage people who might be reluctant to participate. For many states, this year will be one of intense preparation -- assuming lawmakers provide the necessary resources.

Congressional seats are hanging by a thread in a dozen states. Less than a 2 percent difference in the population count could mean gaining or losing a seat, according to a Stateline analysis of reapportionment projections by Election Data Services, a Virginia-based elections consulting firm.

Billions in federal dollars also depend on the census: About 300 programs use census data to distribute more than $800 billion a year, according to a 2018 report by the Institute of Public Policy at George Washington University. Medicaid, food stamps, highway construction money and school lunches all depend on the count.

“Now is the time to do it,” said Wendy Underhill, who monitors state census preparations for the National Conference of State Legislatures. “Most states are on board, and I think the rest are considering it, especially these states that are on the cusp” of losing or gaining seats.

One of those states is California, the nation’s most populous, which is at risk of losing a congressional seat for the first time in its 169-year history. It can keep its seat by upping its population by 144,000 people -- less than 0.5 percent of its projected 40 million residents.

To maximize its count, California since 2017 has approved $100 million to hire workers and pay for media campaigns with the aim of reaching people who are hard to count. New Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom has proposed another $54 million to bolster those efforts.

In 12 states a difference of less than 2% in the 2020 census would change the number of congressional seats.

Newsom also wants the state to fact check the official count using its own estimates. States and cities may challenge the federal count if they can prove technical errors. There were 239 challenges after the 2010 census, mostly by cities and counties. Most resulted in changes to official census figures.

California has 53 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives -- more than any other state. To protect those seats, the state will monitor participation next year, watching neighborhood maps for low response rates and swooping in to encourage residents to fill out forms.

California spent only $2 million on the 2010 census, when the state had a severe budget crisis, and $25 million in 2000.

“I would hope that states would recognize the importance of this. Some have put a lot of resources into it,” said Kimball Brace, president of Election Data Services, which uses recent population trends to project the number of seats at stake in 2020.

“In previous years, a small margin has suddenly come back to cause a problem,” Brace said. “In every state, those congressional seats are important.”

The Trump administration’s push to include a citizenship question on the 2020 census has helped energize state and local leaders in Democratic-dominated California. Research suggests that such a question might dissuade immigrants -- legal and illegal -- from participating.

The situation is far different in Republican-led Arizona, Florida and Texas. There, state leaders support the citizenship question or have declined to fight it, and they have largely left it to city and local officials to organize outreach efforts.

A federal judge struck down the question in January but the U.S. Supreme Court is likely to make the final decision.

No state is spending nearly as much per capita as California. But states such as Maryland ($5 million for a population of roughly 6 million) and Georgia ($2.25 million for about 10.5 million people) have set aside relatively large sums.

Some states are requesting the bulk of money this year, as preparations reach final stages before the federal government sends out census questionnaires in the spring of 2020, according to state legislative analysts.

Minnesota’s Census Mobilization Partnership of state government and private nonprofits will be asking the legislature for $2.5 million. Illinois’ state-appointed Complete Count Commission is requesting $25 million.

Schools, churches and libraries

California and other states with large immigrant populations are conducting outreach in schools, because schoolchildren may be the only English speakers in some immigrant homes. They would be the ones filling out census forms.

For instance, California gave $250,000 to public schools in Sacramento, Los Angeles and Fresno to develop and test history, social studies and arts lessons that stress census participation. Those will be available statewide in the fall, said Ditas Katague, director of the state-sponsored California Complete Count Office.

California Complete Count has asked nonprofits to submit proposals for outreach to farmworkers and minorities. One likely strategy is to tap trusted leaders, such as pastors in African-American churches, to encourage participation.

“It’s so important that the message be delivered by people who that particular audience trusts,” Katague said. “One reason California is putting in so many dollars is that we live in a unique place, and we can make the message resonate better than the feds can, better than Madison Avenue in New York or census headquarters.”

If Illinois falls short in its projected count by just 45,000 people, it could lose two seats instead of the one it’s projected to lose now, according to the Election Data Services analysis. And a margin of only 26,000 people could help Minnesota avoid losing a seat.

“We have a lot at risk. We understand that,” said Jeanine Stroger, the chairwoman of the Illinois Complete Count Commission, also state-sponsored. The commission is working on, among other things, making the state’s 639 public libraries inviting places for people to fill out online census forms.

The hardest part in Illinois will be overcoming people’s natural suspicion of personal questions and government intentions, said Kathie Kane-Willis, who helped the state conduct frank discussions with African-Americans and immigrants in Chicago.

“The barriers were, ‘What are they doing with this information? Are they going to share it with everybody? Will my landlord find out? Will my health insurance be affected?’” said Kane-Willis. “So we need to get trusted messengers in to demystify this, to reassure that this is not going out for everybody to see, it’s just to get the right amount of help where it’s needed.”

In Illinois, state lottery terminals and veterans’ newsletters will have census reminders, and libraries will hold poster contests. Volunteers plan to drum up support at community meetings.

“This is the big year,” Stroger said. “This is when we make our big push.”

Washington state this year awarded about $160,000 in grants to eight community groups for census outreach to Pacific Islander, Hispanic, Korean, Lummi Indian, homeless, low-income and other groups who may be hard to reach, according to Tracy Gunter, a program manager for the state Department of Commerce.

In Minnesota and many other states, private charities are aiding state and local officials in the census effort, driven by a desire to illuminate the plight of low-income ethnic minorities. In Minnesota, that includes American Indians, and Hmong and Somali refugees.

Groups with local roots are best-positioned to decide the best outreach strategies, said Bob Tracy, director of public policy and communications for the Minnesota Council on Foundations.

“They will tell us what is working best,” Tracy said. “The community leaders we pulled together came into this with a lot of skepticism, but they are fully committed now to an accurate census count. It was a powerful transformation.”

Cities, philanthropists and nonprofits

In some states that have been slow to devote resources to census outreach, cities and philanthropists have launched their own efforts to avoid an undercount. Nonprofits are taking the lead in Florida and Indiana, while Michigan is matching private funds up to $500,000 through a nonprofit.

In Texas, there was no statewide effort to help with the 2010 census. The Mexican American Legal Defense and Educational Fund used private grants to encourage Latino participation.

Hidalgo County leaders, in the Rio Grande Valley, complained that an undercount cost the area $210 million in federal funding, citing aerial photos showing hundreds of homes that apparently were not counted. Texas, the nation’s second-most-populous state after California, has 36 House seats and stands to gain three more.

Luis Figueroa, the co-chairman of the 2010 Latino outreach, now advocates for a statewide Texas effort. He’s optimistic that Republican Gov. Greg Abbott will act this year because there’s so much at stake, he said. That includes economic development opportunities.

“The census is crucial in terms of federal money for health care and education, and for political influence, but it certainly matters for business investment,” Figueroa said. “For instance, Amazon set a floor of a million people in the area where they would build a new headquarters.”

Two Texas Democrats, Reps. César Blanco of El Paso and Harold Dutton of Houston, are pushing measures in the Republican-dominated state legislature that would create a statewide organization to help with the census count, as was done in 1990 and 2000, Figueroa said.

Some skeptics doubt outreach efforts can make much of a difference. It’s not clear that Texas would see a benefit from spending a lot of money to encourage census participation, said Steven Camarota, research director for the Center for Immigration Studies, which favors lower levels of immigration and supports the citizenship question.

“If they spent $100 million it is far from clear that it would be worth it, even if it did boost turnout a little,” Camarota said.

But Underhill, the NCSL director for elections and redistricting, said Texas should be as aggressive as California in finding people, since both states have congressional seats in the balance and both have large immigration populations.

“If Texas wants to compete with California, you can be sure California is going to be counting every human being in the state,” Underhill said. “They’re going to turn over every rock.”

NEXT STORY: What's next in network automation

X
This website uses cookies to enhance user experience and to analyze performance and traffic on our website. We also share information about your use of our site with our social media, advertising and analytics partners. Learn More / Do Not Sell My Personal Information
Accept Cookies
X
Cookie Preferences Cookie List

Do Not Sell My Personal Information

When you visit our website, we store cookies on your browser to collect information. The information collected might relate to you, your preferences or your device, and is mostly used to make the site work as you expect it to and to provide a more personalized web experience. However, you can choose not to allow certain types of cookies, which may impact your experience of the site and the services we are able to offer. Click on the different category headings to find out more and change our default settings according to your preference. You cannot opt-out of our First Party Strictly Necessary Cookies as they are deployed in order to ensure the proper functioning of our website (such as prompting the cookie banner and remembering your settings, to log into your account, to redirect you when you log out, etc.). For more information about the First and Third Party Cookies used please follow this link.

Allow All Cookies

Manage Consent Preferences

Strictly Necessary Cookies - Always Active

We do not allow you to opt-out of our certain cookies, as they are necessary to ensure the proper functioning of our website (such as prompting our cookie banner and remembering your privacy choices) and/or to monitor site performance. These cookies are not used in a way that constitutes a “sale” of your data under the CCPA. You can set your browser to block or alert you about these cookies, but some parts of the site will not work as intended if you do so. You can usually find these settings in the Options or Preferences menu of your browser. Visit www.allaboutcookies.org to learn more.

Sale of Personal Data, Targeting & Social Media Cookies

Under the California Consumer Privacy Act, you have the right to opt-out of the sale of your personal information to third parties. These cookies collect information for analytics and to personalize your experience with targeted ads. You may exercise your right to opt out of the sale of personal information by using this toggle switch. If you opt out we will not be able to offer you personalised ads and will not hand over your personal information to any third parties. Additionally, you may contact our legal department for further clarification about your rights as a California consumer by using this Exercise My Rights link

If you have enabled privacy controls on your browser (such as a plugin), we have to take that as a valid request to opt-out. Therefore we would not be able to track your activity through the web. This may affect our ability to personalize ads according to your preferences.

Targeting cookies may be set through our site by our advertising partners. They may be used by those companies to build a profile of your interests and show you relevant adverts on other sites. They do not store directly personal information, but are based on uniquely identifying your browser and internet device. If you do not allow these cookies, you will experience less targeted advertising.

Social media cookies are set by a range of social media services that we have added to the site to enable you to share our content with your friends and networks. They are capable of tracking your browser across other sites and building up a profile of your interests. This may impact the content and messages you see on other websites you visit. If you do not allow these cookies you may not be able to use or see these sharing tools.

If you want to opt out of all of our lead reports and lists, please submit a privacy request at our Do Not Sell page.

Save Settings
Cookie Preferences Cookie List

Cookie List

A cookie is a small piece of data (text file) that a website – when visited by a user – asks your browser to store on your device in order to remember information about you, such as your language preference or login information. Those cookies are set by us and called first-party cookies. We also use third-party cookies – which are cookies from a domain different than the domain of the website you are visiting – for our advertising and marketing efforts. More specifically, we use cookies and other tracking technologies for the following purposes:

Strictly Necessary Cookies

We do not allow you to opt-out of our certain cookies, as they are necessary to ensure the proper functioning of our website (such as prompting our cookie banner and remembering your privacy choices) and/or to monitor site performance. These cookies are not used in a way that constitutes a “sale” of your data under the CCPA. You can set your browser to block or alert you about these cookies, but some parts of the site will not work as intended if you do so. You can usually find these settings in the Options or Preferences menu of your browser. Visit www.allaboutcookies.org to learn more.

Functional Cookies

We do not allow you to opt-out of our certain cookies, as they are necessary to ensure the proper functioning of our website (such as prompting our cookie banner and remembering your privacy choices) and/or to monitor site performance. These cookies are not used in a way that constitutes a “sale” of your data under the CCPA. You can set your browser to block or alert you about these cookies, but some parts of the site will not work as intended if you do so. You can usually find these settings in the Options or Preferences menu of your browser. Visit www.allaboutcookies.org to learn more.

Performance Cookies

We do not allow you to opt-out of our certain cookies, as they are necessary to ensure the proper functioning of our website (such as prompting our cookie banner and remembering your privacy choices) and/or to monitor site performance. These cookies are not used in a way that constitutes a “sale” of your data under the CCPA. You can set your browser to block or alert you about these cookies, but some parts of the site will not work as intended if you do so. You can usually find these settings in the Options or Preferences menu of your browser. Visit www.allaboutcookies.org to learn more.

Sale of Personal Data

We also use cookies to personalize your experience on our websites, including by determining the most relevant content and advertisements to show you, and to monitor site traffic and performance, so that we may improve our websites and your experience. You may opt out of our use of such cookies (and the associated “sale” of your Personal Information) by using this toggle switch. You will still see some advertising, regardless of your selection. Because we do not track you across different devices, browsers and GEMG properties, your selection will take effect only on this browser, this device and this website.

Social Media Cookies

We also use cookies to personalize your experience on our websites, including by determining the most relevant content and advertisements to show you, and to monitor site traffic and performance, so that we may improve our websites and your experience. You may opt out of our use of such cookies (and the associated “sale” of your Personal Information) by using this toggle switch. You will still see some advertising, regardless of your selection. Because we do not track you across different devices, browsers and GEMG properties, your selection will take effect only on this browser, this device and this website.

Targeting Cookies

We also use cookies to personalize your experience on our websites, including by determining the most relevant content and advertisements to show you, and to monitor site traffic and performance, so that we may improve our websites and your experience. You may opt out of our use of such cookies (and the associated “sale” of your Personal Information) by using this toggle switch. You will still see some advertising, regardless of your selection. Because we do not track you across different devices, browsers and GEMG properties, your selection will take effect only on this browser, this device and this website.