American families are opening their wallets for the school year earlier and more freely than ever. The National Retail Federation forecasts families will spend $43.3 billion for kindergarten through 12th grade students and $103.5 billion for college students, bringing total back-to-school spending to $146.8 billion, compared with $128.2 billion for the 2025 season.
A record high driven by early action
Sixty-two percent of shoppers had already started shopping for the school year by early July, according to the annual survey released by the NRF and Prosper Insights & Analytics. While the figure is down slightly from 67% at the same point in 2025, it remains significantly higher than the 55% reported in 2024.
About one-third of back-to-school shoppers had already started browsing and buying by early June, the highest since NRF first started asking the question in 2018.
While all age groups started shopping a bit earlier this year, younger generations in particular lead the trend. Gen Z and Millennials saw a bigger jump in back-to-school shopping by early June than other age groups.
The NRF and Prosper Insights & Analytics survey covered 7,677 consumers between July 1 and July 8. The full results were published this month on the NRF’s website.
Value front and center as prices stay elevated
Seventy-eight percent of shoppers expect to see higher prices on back-to-school items this school season, compared with 84% in 2022. Those earning over $100,000 have seen a steeper drop in price concern since 2022’s higher inflation. That lingering price sensitivity is reshaping how families plan purchases rather than how much they ultimately spend.
Budget pressures are shaping how families approach the season in 2026, with roughly half, 47%, of all shoppers reporting that they intend to buy only what is essential to start the school year. Among those who have not yet purchased at least half of their back-to-school items, 46% say they are waiting for the best deals to finish their shopping, the NRF survey found.
Fifty-four percent of shoppers reported they had shopped major June sales events such as Prime Day, Walmart Deals and Target Circle Deal Days specifically for school-related purchases. That front-running of the traditional late-July season reflects a broader consumer habit of using big promotional windows as anchors for planned, needs-driven spending, a pattern also visible in the travel-spending divide that emerged this summer.
What families plan to buy
Families with students in elementary through high school plan to spend an average of $863.86 on items this year, up slightly from $858.07 in 2025. Total K-12 spending is expected to reach a record $43.3 billion, driven by slight increases in planned spending on shoes, school supplies and electronics. The total is up from $39.4 billion in 2025 and surpasses the previous survey high of $41.5 billion set in 2023.
K-12 shoppers plan to spend an average of $293.11 on electronics, totaling $14.7 billion, followed by $250.29 on clothing and accessories, totaling $12.5 billion. Shoes average $174.01 per family, totaling $8.7 billion, and school supplies average $146.45, totaling $7.3 billion.
Back-to-school shopping for college students is expected to reach $103.5 billion, exceeding $100 billion for the first time, according to the NRF and Prosper Insights & Analytics survey.
What retailers are doing in response
NRF Chief Economist and Executive Director of Research Mark Mathews said in the release: “Affordability is a concern for families and a top priority for retailers as we enter the back-to-school season.” He added: “Shoppers are keeping value front and center as they look for ways to make their dollars go further. Retailers are responding with a strong assortment of products, promotional events and more convenient shopping options, helping families find what they need while saving time and money.”
Deloitte forecast that back-to-school spending would stay flat this year, as K-12 parents plan to engage in value-seeking behaviors and push their spending closer to the start of school. For many households, a deal-seeking mindset no longer switches off when a promotional window closes.
Many consumers are delaying purchases until later in the season or spreading out shopping to manage their budgets. With back-to-school now spanning June through September, the season has essentially become a months-long exercise in budget management rather than a single shopping sprint, a dynamic consistent with the broader spending-tracking habits researchers have documented this year.
