Experts are sounding the climate alarms as the remaining carbon budget to maintain warming below 1.5°C is reduced to only 130 billion tons of CO2. This remaining carbon budget will be depleted in the next three years based on the current rate of emissions. The Earth has already seen temperatures rise to 1.52°C above pre-industrial levels as of 2024. Human activities have contributed 1.36°C of warming.
Carbon budget depletion endangers the world’s climate system
According to the Indicators of Global Climate Change report, human-induced warming has been rising at a staggering pace of 0.27°C per decade during the period 2015-2024. This indicates that the levels of 1.6°C or 1.7°C warming could also be reached in the next nine years based on the present levels of emissions. The last decade has been 0.31°C warmer than the previous one, and the highest recorded land surface temperature has reached 1.9°C above the previous levels.
This set of figures speaks for itself in regard to the seriousness of our present climate crisis because the recorded highest ever emissions of GHG are presently contributing to both rapid and unprecedented warming in all climate factors. Human activities have led to the release of 53 billion tons of CO2 equivalent annually during the last decade. Globally, the emissions from international aviation have again come back to pre-pandemic levels.
Arctic warming patterns reveal accelerating feedback mechanisms
The pace of global warming between 2012 and 2024 has essentially been twice as high as the observed warming in the 1970s and 1980s. This has significantly affected the important climate elements of sea-level rise, warming of the oceans, melting of ice, and the melting of permafrost in the polar regions.
Excess heat that has been building in the Earth’s system is forcing change in each area of the Earth’s climate system, as the oceans absorb approximately 91% of the excess heat due to the increase in the concentration of GHG emissions. This increase in the Earth’s oceans causes a rise in sea levels and weather extremes.
The worrying thing is that the rate of sea-level rise in response to climate change is rather slow. This means that the increase has already been locked in for the forthcoming years. From 2019 to 2024, the rise of the global mean sea level rose at a rate of 26 millimeters. This happened when the rate of rise since the twentieth century has been 1.8 millimeters per year.
Global commitments to climate fall short of scientific imperatives
While only 25 countries that represent the entire 20% of the world’s emissions have pledged their updated national plans to the United Nations, the remaining 172 countries have yet to submit their plan for the upcoming COP30. Among the G-20 countries that account for 80% of the world’s total emissions, only five countries have pledged their plans for 2035, namely Canada, Brazil, Japan, the U.S., and the U.K.
“The window to remain below 1.5°C warming is rapidly closing,” warns Prof. Rogelj of Imperial College London. According to him: “Globally, warming already has adverse impacts on billions of people. Even the slightest rise in warming causes more intense weather-related extremes to become more common.”
Only 10 updated nationally determined contributions have solidified existing commitments to transition away from fossil fuels, which reflects the lack of sufficient response from the world to the increase in scientific information. The Paris Agreement temperature goals hinge upon the upcoming climate plans of the European Union, China, and India.
The confluence of the rapidly warming Arctic, reduced carbon targets, and lack of sufficient commitments at the international level has presented the world with a unique climate crisis. With only three years left before the critical warming thresholds are passed, the world has been given a very limited chance to avoid the worst effects of climate change.
