Pyongyang launched multiple ballistic missiles into the East Sea on January 4 at 7:50 a.m., just hours before South Korean President Lee Jae-Myung was scheduled to arrive in China for his first official visit to Beijing as president. The launch marks an escalation in tension across the region and heightens concerns regarding North Korea’s intent as diplomatic efforts continue in earnest. Multiple ballistic missiles were fired from the vicinity of Pyongyang, according to South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff.
The missiles’ journey to the Sea of Japan
The missiles reportedly traveled roughly 900 km (560 miles) prior to splashing down in the East Sea, commonly referred to as the Sea of Japan. Japan immediately confirmed the launches, with Defense Minister Shinjiro Koizumi stating:
“These developments pose a serious threat to both regional and global security.”
No immediate threat to U.S. forces or allies
Although the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command acknowledged North Korea’s test launches, the command stated that there was no immediate threat to U.S. forces or allies. However, Washington again reiterated its commitment to defend South Korea and Japan; therefore, North Korea’s missile launches will draw some form of diplomatic response.
The timing of the launches clearly indicates that the tests were not coincidental. For example, Lee Jae-Myung’s visit to Beijing represents his first since being elected and is intended to improve economic ties between South Korea and China and encourage Beijing to take a constructive approach to dissuading North Korea from engaging in provocative behavior.
A disruption to the Workers’ Party of Korea’s congress
Additionally, the missile tests occur in advance of the Workers’ Party of Korea’s congress, which will mark the first such gathering in five years. Experts state that Kim Jong Un intends to display his military prowess domestically in order to garner additional domestic support and to demonstrate that he remains a leader capable of standing against foreign pressure.
Kim Jong Un visited arms manufacturing facilities recently and directed the production of hundreds of thousands of new missiles. Since the failure of the U.S. and North Korea talks in 2019, Pyongyang has rapidly expanded its arms development capabilities with a focus on developing nuclear deterrent capabilities and advanced missile technologies to improve its negotiating position and to dissuade potential threats from the United States and its allies.
Lee Jae-Myung’s trip to China is extremely important
Discussions during the trip will likely include topics such as trade, technological cooperation, and climate initiatives. However, the recent North Korean missile launches add another layer of complexity to these discussions and limit the ability of the Republic of Korea to obtain assistance from China in reducing instability on the Korean Peninsula.
Beijing is North Korea’s largest economic partner and provides its closest political support
Although Beijing has publicly voiced its support for peace and stability on the Korean Peninsula, it has historically demonstrated resistance to taking draconian measures against Pyongyang. It is unclear if Beijing will use its leverage to pressure Pyongyang to return to the negotiating table at this point, particularly given the increasing rivalry between the United States and China.
South Korea held an emergency meeting of its National Security Council in response to the launches and reaffirmed that North Korea’s actions constitute a violation of U.N. Security Council Resolutions.
North Korea’s most recent missile launches exemplify Pyongyang’s strategy of brinksmanship — using military provocation to shape the agenda in diplomatic forums. As Lee Jae-Myung and Chinese officials meet, the question remains whether Beijing will employ meaningful pressure on Pyongyang or will continue to shield it. At present, the Korean Peninsula is entering a period of greater uncertainty. Ongoing diplomatic efforts and missile launches are unfolding simultaneously and creating a complex dynamic of power, deterrence, and negotiation in one of the most unstable regions in the world.
