Yemen has started to calm down after a period of extreme difficulty in the country. This period, however, was accompanied by another wave of fluctuating Yemeni internal politics. This situation has highlighted the need for Yemen’s internal politics to be more stable and has, as such, posed new and unique challenges in terms of public safety awareness in the whole of the Persian Gulf. Following years of instability and ongoing military tensions, there seems to be a new center of instability that is much more dangerous.
This new instability appears to be within the military coalition of Saudi Arabia and the UAE, and the Yemeni Houthis-aligned movement
Following years of providing military support to the Yemeni Houthis-aligned movement, Saudi Arabia and the UAE have established a new political order that is extremely concerning to the coalition members.
Recently, STC and STC-aligned forces gained control of the oil-rich southern governorates of Yemen. This changed the political standstill due to the temporary cessation of active conflict as of late 2022. STC control over an energy facility and oil company, PetroMasila Yemen, broke claims of governance by the internationally recognized government of Yemen, partnered with Saudi Arabia.
Claiming control over strategically important and economically critical regions reflects STC’s aspirations to realize its primary goal of achieving statehood as South Yemen, a country that existed until 1990. In spite of STC Chairman Aidarous al-Zubaidi’s position as a vice president of the IRG’s Presidential Leadership Council and its governing body, the recent activities of his faction indicate a commitment to self-determination over integrated governance.
This situation puts the UAE-backed separatists against the IRG and its allied tribal forces, funded by Saudi Arabia. The renewed energy of this situation shifts the focus to Hadramout, which is the main energy supplier to the remaining southern regions of Yemen.
The source of a conflict that is long overdue
The situation creates a potential ‘collision course’ between the two primary allies of the US, Saudi Arabia and the UAE. Their designated groups, which were focused on the primary opposition, are now contesting for power within Yemen itself.
The Anti-Houthi Alliance is vulnerable
The Anti-Houthi Alliance used to be united in their strategic actions across the region. Now, because of the splintering of the Alliance, it is vulnerable to the Houthis’ strategies, which could potentially plunge the region into civil war (again).
The Saudi government is not very happy that the UAE is siding with the STC. They think this gives the STC too much power. The outcome is that the UAE and STC empowered the south, while the Benghazi government and Saudi Arabia consider their control of the north and the Houthis.
If the Yemeni economy fails, the world will suffer
This may create too much of a risk concerning the Gulf, a risk that the whole world may tip the balance over. The ongoing conflict in Yemen is inescapable primarily because Yemen is at the crosshairs of a vital trade route.
This means that if the Arab coalition (stability) is not present, the trade route can and will be manipulated by outside forces hoping to destabilize the economy of the Arab world. This would be of huge importance to the rest of the world, especially with trading.
Having so much focus on Yemen keeps the world from facing a major crisis. That focus and attention on Yemen is also to avoid a humanitarian crisis. Yemen is a unique situation in the world where ending the violence keeps the world from losing a major civilization. The Yemen situation is major, and losing Yemen would be major to the world.
