The UK is undergoing an unprecedented change in its workforce due to the very rapid developments in artificial intelligence and automation technologies. In a historic investigation conducted by the National Foundation for Educational Research, it has been unearthed that three million jobs in the low-skilled sectors may become extinct in the next decade and change the face of employment in Britain.
Low-skilled workers are facing an unprecedented threat of automation
In the comprehensive analysis conducted by the National Foundation for Educational Research, trade occupations, machine operating tasks, and administrative jobs are seen as jobs that are highly susceptible to replacement with artificial intelligence in 2035. According to the analysis by NFER, the jobs that are suspected to be at risk of bombardment and automation include lower-level jobs that are comprised of repetitive tasks.
Although some economists have suggested that software engineers, business consultants, and other professionals may be at higher risk of displacement from generative AI, it appears that NFER has predicted otherwise. Professional jobs are, in fact, projected to increase in the coming years due to the effects of AI on workloads and the need for professional supervision. Overall, it is predicted that 2.3 million jobs will be created in the UK by 2035.
Conflicting research creates uncertainty about AI’s true impact
Contradictory findings have emerged in recent literature concerning the types of employment that are at risk of technological change. In October, an analysis carried out for King’s College identified that job cuts of around 9.4% occurred in higher-paying companies between 2021 and 2025, with this happening largely after the launch of ChatGPT at the end of 2022, hinting at professional jobs potentially being at risk.
Economic uncertainty compounds AI-driven job displacement
Jude Hillary, one of the authors of this report, further added that it may be the case that the current popular narrative about huge layoffs due to the effects of artificial intelligence may be moving faster than the current economy. Hillary said that it may be the case that slow economic growth and increases in employers’ costs due to increases in national insurance contributions may be much more influential in current layoffs than artificial intelligence.
Press releases of corporations illustrate this as big companies change their approach towards their workforce. Clifford Chance announced that it will be laying off 10% of its business services workers in London due in part to the impact of artificial intelligence, while PwC Global has backtracked on its plans to employ 100,000 workers from 2021 until 2026 due to the impact of artificial intelligence on job expectations.
Some of the key findings of the NFER report are:
- 3 million low-skilled jobs at risk by 2035
- 2.3 million additional jobs expected in total
- Professional role-based growth
- Displaced workers face considerable barriers in retraining
Worker Transition Needs Broad Policy Intervention
Hillary highlighted that “the UK is facing very imbalanced change as work patterns are reshaped in different sectors of the economy by the applications of artificial intelligence.” Though professional and associate professional occupations are expected to experience growth regarding job demand, particularly in jobs that entail judgment, supervision, or interaction with artificial intelligence systems, the demand for entry-level and lower-skilled jobs will drop drastically.
“There is this kind of vague uncertainty about what exactly is happening and when it can be improved. There is talk about AI and Automation that has no substance to it. Many employers are very concerned about this,” Hillary explained.
In light of this issue, it is important to note that this situation presents an inflection point within the UK that may be made better or worse as the country undergoes the benefits of efficiency and economy that can be created by the emergence of artificial intelligence while potentially exacerbating any inequalities that may arise if it fails to adapt and re-skill the lower-skilled workers of the country.
