A critical juncture has been reached for trade relationships within North America with the upcoming mandatory review of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) in July 2026. A possible withdrawal from this trade arrangement among the three countries has recently been forward by U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer. This unusual level of uncertainty comes during a time when trade leaders meet for a potentially historic trade negotiation.
The Trump administration indicates a potential for disrupting continental trade
U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer has recently indicated a tough response to the impending USMCA review, as expressed in a recent statement: “President Trump only wants deals that are a good deal.” The President agrees that the trade pact includes a mechanism for modification or withdrawal. This administration has shown that tariffs can be a powerful tool in this regard. The administration has used Section 232 national security tariffs on steel imports from Canada and aluminum imports from Canada and Mexico.
Additionally, Section 232 tariffs on automobile imports were imposed on imports from Canada and Mexico. Furthermore, Section 232 tariffs were used on imports of Canadian softwood lumber.” Greer’s remarks to a podcast hosted by Politico indicate that the administration would seek to gain maximum concessions in negotiations while feeling no compunctions about rocking conventional norms. The prospect of breaking up a trilateral pact into bilateral ones signifies a radical shift in a series of decades of North American integration. This refers to President Trump’s preference for bilateral dealings.
Business leaders warn about supply chain disruptions
The Global Business Alliance, which represents large foreign companies, warned that a sudden introduction of new reporting obligations or any form of compliance could lead to severe supply chain problems as well as effects on access to vital goods for American citizens. This serves to emphasize that a border wall would affect a globally connected North American manufacturing system.
U.S. Chamber of Commerce demands tariff elimination
The biggest business organization in America has demanded a Complete elimination of all tariffs based on national security provisions with imports that come from Canada and Mexico because such provisions go contrary to one of the most important commitments of USMCA: maintaining tariff-free trade. This was pointed out by Neil Herrington, a senior vice president with the Chamber. 13 million jobs in America rely on trade with Canada and Mexico. This stands in sharp conflict with America’s protectionist policies championed by President Trump.
Key stakeholder positions emerge
Pro-USMCA Coalition: Chamber of Commerce, Global Business Alliance
Tariff Supporters: Steel Manufacturers Association, United Auto Workers
Government Stance: Conditional support with demands for major concessions
Despite her support for the USMCA trade agreement reaffirmation, the Chamber complained about violations of obligations by trading partners. Problems exist with regard to failure to comply with commitments in dairy trade, healthcare services, and information technology. This occurs with regard to agricultural trade and energy.
Steel industry supports continued tariff protection measures
The Steel Manufacturers Association represented more than 70 percent of steel-making capability in the U.S. and ardently advocated for retention of Section 232 tariffs irrespective of USMCA’s future because such policies were “remarkably effective” in fostering more domestic steel production. According to a report by Brandon Farris, for every unit of steel imports lost to Canada and Mexico, one unit of raw steel was produced in America.
The steel industry has demanded that all steel imports be remelted and poured in North America to be eligible for USMCA tariff protection. The USMCA review has brought to light a number of underlying tensions concerning protectionist tendencies and free trade gains in US economic policies. Whereas corporate leaders strongly favor trade integration in North America, a potentially withdrawal-oriented policy by the current US administration brings about a level of uncertainty that has never before been witnessed.
