Yemen is experiencing new fears of renewed civil conflict after a period of stagnant warfare. The Southern Transition Council (STC) has been battling the Saudi-supported government of Yemen and its tribal allies for control of Hadramaut and Mahra provinces’ oil refineries and borders. In December 2022, it was stated that they had won various new PetroMasila refineries and border control facilities.
This conflict is increased because of STC seizing military support and an increase in financing
This new conflict is a result of the STC seizing military support and increasing financing through the United Arab Emirates (UAE) to control major southern Yemen ports such as Aden. This new support has emboldened the STC to make civil independence calls. So far, no major world power has stepped in to end the conflict. The new control of various border facilities and refineries will allow the STC to apply gradual military control with the prospect of financial independence through the control of fuel production. This prospect is the reason for Saudi Arabia’s support of the determined southern Yemen tribal forces.
Yemen’s current civil strife began in 2014 when the Houthi rebel forces, aligned with Iran, took the capital Sanaa. This led to a Saudi-led historic military coalition with the UAE in a long-standing, unpopular involvement in Yemen. The Coalition seeks to regain control of Yemen’s government and gets support from the Southern Yemen anti-Houthi forces. The Houthis now control the heavily populated and affluent north. The conflict has led to a major humanitarian and economic collapse over a long period, with famine and disease outbreaks in Yemen. Yemen’s violence has continued without a major new world power display of force since a Saudi-Houthi truce in 2022.
The conflict began because the STC is defying a weak system of leadership
This latest conflict began with what is, in this case, called the Southern Transitional Council (STC), which went against the Presidential Leadership Council (PLC), which is an arbitrary alliance of power. The PLC’s Vice President, Aidarous al-Zubaidi, is the leader of the STC. So, in a conflict over alliances, the Presidential Leadership Council (PLC) has become embroiled in the Southern Transitional Council (STC) control conflict.
This has led the STC to call for southern civil self-determination, similar to the 1967-1990 civil independence of South Yemen.
There is a new emphasis on financial support for military ports
There are various reasons to explain the new emphasis on military ports and refineries and the new financial support for refineries. Saudi Arabia is determined to control new border refineries to provide social services to people in southern Yemen.
Some of the reasons include:
- The support and call for civil independence are major reasons for their financial and military support.
- The military intervention and lack of a world power for the STC to expect military and civil financial independence to control the new ports.
- The new control of border refineries will allow the STC to control social collapse and financial control. This is the major reason for the various border refineries and the control of new social services.
The chaos of the STC and their movements into the Gulf of Aden
The STC made the most of the disorder and began moving into Hadramout, which flows from the Gulf of Aden down to the Saudi border, and Mahra on the Oman border, and secured the oil infrastructure with only minor skirmishes. In Aden, the STC took the presidential palace, increasing Saudi troop withdrawals, which can now be framed as repositioning, thanks to the palace.
Saudi delegations who had been negotiating with Al-Qahtani in Hadramout as the Saudi commander of the region, were hastily on their way to meet with him. Al-Qahtani’s refusal of what the idiom calls ‘faits accompli’ resulted in the Saudi mood being, to put it mildly, displeased. It was indicated to the STC that it had been their (STC and UAE) turn to take southwestern Yemen, and frustrated with the UAE gaining influence as the commander of the proxy.
