A recent mural located in central Tehran can be viewed as a public warning to the United States. Publicly funded murals are very common in Iran and serve as a means to convey public statements or ideas to both domestic audiences and foreign entities. The significance of this event lies in the fact that symbolic representations of issues can assist in shaping or solidifying public perception of an issue, regardless of the existence of current policy options.
Symbolic communication as a form of deterrence
Billboards and murals in Tehran have traditionally been designed to reflect the official views of the Iranian government. The themes of the content have historically changed based on the current security concerns facing the nation.
Images are intended to be distributed to assist in establishing a shared perception of a nation’s intentions. They are intended to foster a certain type of narrative while providing a degree of ambiguity that allows for negotiating leverage.
At this point, the previously obscure details become clear; the mural unveiled in Enghelab Square depicts a damaged U.S. aircraft carrier with all aircraft rendered inoperable and includes the phrase, “If you sow the wind, you will reap the whirlwind,” in Persian and English.
The relationship between the mural and the current security issues
The reference to the carrier speaks directly to the ability of the United States to project military force; however, it reframes the issue in terms of vulnerability to potential retaliation. The image is a conditional, consequence-based warning and does not include an abstract statement.
The mural fits within the greater context of warnings being issued by Iran in an attempt to deter a U.S. attack as tensions rise. The mural clearly illustrates how messaging supports the confrontation dynamics.
Enghelab Square is a location that is highly visible and is often utilized for state events. Therefore, the mural serves as a timely and relevant symbol of the spike in tensions.
Implications of diplomatic flexibility and risk management
Public deterrence images can negatively affect a nation’s diplomatic flexibility by increasing the public cost and expectations of the various actors involved in the crisis. Escalating public signals can shorten the time leaders have to make decisions. Images still do not constitute an order, and each party still has an incentive to avoid an uncontrollable conflict.
The major concern is related to interpretation; misinterpretation of intent can result in incorrect timing when dealing with dangerous situations. As the escalation of public symbols occurs, the utilization of diplomatic channels and third-party messaging is critical to preventing the dangers of increasing the risk of war.
Short-term and strategic impact of public imagery
While each party continues to send signals of resolve in public forums, private communication is typically the only forum for determining intentions, decreasing the number of erroneous assumptions made about the other party, and preventing the misconception of a public gesture as an imminent action.
In the short term, the mural is likely to reinforce the prevailing narratives that are currently in play and not commit to any new obligations. However, by placing a retaliatory warning in a highly visible public area, Tehran increases the reputational risks associated with any subsequent decision-making.
Therefore, the mural in Tehran exemplifies how political imagery can act as a medium of strategic communication when tensions are elevated. The impact of the mural stems from its placement and visibility, as well as its association with a universally recognizable visual warning of an ambiguous diplomatic environment. Whether or not an immediate response occurs to the mural, the messaging contained therein will affect expectations that last beyond the confines of the current news cycle.
