Witnessing the start of an accelerating normalization dance between Armenia and Turkey heralding a possible complete transformation of South Caucasus geopolitics, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan openly speculates that an Armenia-Azerbaijan peace treaty will be readied within the first half of 2026, after which the long-closed Armenian-Turkish border will be opened permanently, but Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan himself is panhandling on the streets for Turkish signatures on the historic peace relationship ahead of highly stakes 2026
A Decade of hostility between Armenia and Turkey has been overcome
On 12 September, Armenian and Turkish special envoys of normalisation of relations, Ruben Rubinyan and Serdar Kilic, met in Yerevan. They were having their first such meeting in the Armenian capital since January 2022. The visit by a Turkish official at a high level was not the first of its kind; however, what mattered was the timing. A normalisation of Armenia-Turkey relations has been associated with Armenia-Azerbaijan relations; the border between Russia and Turkey had been sealed since 1993 after Armenian forces occupied Kelbajar.
Interviewed post-Kilic-Rubinyan meeting, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan indicated that he envisages having an Armenia-Azerbaijan treaty, signed in March and awaiting initialing in August, signed during the first half of 2026. Immediately after that, normalisation of relations and the complete opening of the shared border would begin. Yerevan hopes that the border might be opened earlier in the future and relies on its capacity to enjoy new trade routes.
This diplomatic breakthrough is something that has never been achieved regionally
Any border openings thus far have been hopeful displays of goodwill. Currently, in 2023, the two Russian closed borders of Armenia, to Turkey, were temporarily opened so that aid could be delivered to tornado-stricken Turkey. The same thing had happened earlier this year to enable Armenia to send humanitarian aid to Syria.
What is so dangerous now is the political gamble that Pashinyan made
In late August, Pashinyan flew to China via Azerbaijani airspace, and he was captured laughing and recording conversations with Aliyev at the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit. Their wives, Canadian-born Anna Hakobyan and vis-à-vis Mehriban Aliyeva, were also photographed with Turkish First Lady Emine Erdogan. Such images, which were extensively spread on both the internet and elsewhere, had never been seen before and seemed as though they were meant specifically to give positive messages to societies that had been used to hostility.
Nonetheless, there is no free normalisation. In September, the government of Armenia said that the mountain Ararat, in Turkish Mount Ararat, would be dropped off the stamp of the Armenians at the borders by November. Which was considered a move to evade symbols that Ankara considers as its territories, the ruling sparked a backlash of criticism amongst opponents. Ironically, the former President Serzh Sargsyan, who is the second largest opposition party in the Armenian National Assembly, had tried to normalise the relations with Ankara.
The importance of 2026 as the critical window of success
Months to come are going to be vital. Armenia continues to state that it is willing to sign a document with Azerbaijan without any further notice, even though Baku continues to insist on constitutional reforms in Yerevan, which continues to appear highly probable to delay any signing. Turkey claims that it will only normalise relations with Armenia once they have a peace agreement with Baku.
To Pashinyan, there is a lot at risk. Everything that made him popular collapsed in late 2018, and he is hoping to achieve peace as his key lure in his political future. As far as success is concerned, to Aliyev and Erdogan, this would result in increased influence regionally as well as the opening of new economic prospects. To Washington, it would be a sudden diplomatic victory since an attempt at concluding the Russia-Ukraine war would fail.