The Netherlands and Geert Wilders are at a fork in the road as voters head to the polls on October 29 in what is set to be the most significant election in decades. Following a record year of political turmoil and government crisis, Dutch citizens must make a desperate choice between far-right populism and centrist stability in an election that will determine the fate of the democratic path of the country.
Wilders’ coalition administration falls apart over immigration policy divides
Geert Wilders’ Party for Freedom ignited the present political crisis when it pulled out of the coalition government last June due to disagreements over immigration. The ten-point migrant plan by the far-right leader, such as deploying troops to patrol borders and sending back all asylum seekers, was too radical even for his right-wing coalition allies, who rejected the overtures.
The Schoof government remained as a caretaker government with the three other coalition parties left until August, when further internal divisions brought about total governmental collapse. The 11 months of the coalition did little legislatively, bypassing central structural issues like housing shortfalls while trying to subvert parliamentary control in a bid to force through immigration proposals legitimized far-right rhetoric.
Political turmoil indicates a broad, ideologically wide split within the coalition
The four-party government was structurally inadequate because the deep-seated ideological differences led the coalition from one crisis to another. The inexperience of the ministers, coupled with the weakness of Wilders’ party, created a toxic mix that ended in what commentators described as “two years of chaos” in the hands of the conservatives.
Immigration debate dominates campaign despite housing crisis concerns
Despite the fervent campaign focus on immigration, the Dutch people firmly recognize housing shortage as the country’s biggest problem all the time, with an estimated deficit of 400,000 houses in a population of 18 million. Wilders attempted to connect housing with immigration, stating that the Dutch should take priority for available housing, while the mainstream parties are providing more realistic solutions.
Other anti-immigration bills were rejected by Wilders’ previous coalition partners on the grounds of their illegality in Dutch law as well as under international agreements. Mainstream politicians have recognized broad opposition from many Dutch to the admission of additional migrants, especially from non-Western countries, and are surveying people on solutions that they assert are feasible and in compliance with the law.
Public support tests for far-right leadership
The underlying reality driving this election is one of public backing for Geert Wilders’ far-right leadership candidate, in unprecedentedly adverse examination after his government’s spectacular failure. Despite Wilders’ Freedom Party being the leader in polls amid the turbulent year, analysts indicate that even if he polls the most votes, he would fail to find a place in the next coalition because left-of-center parties refuse cooperation.
Studies reveal that Donald Trump’s actions as U.S. President have not served to enhance Wilders’ popularity with anything beyond his core of supporters. As much as Wilders’ loyal voters see Trump administration action to send back illegal aliens as positive, other “America First” initiatives, such as tariffs and threats to leave NATO, lack popularity in the Dutch bigger interests and issues.
Major electoral dynamics driving coalition options include:
- Far-right parties effectively excluded from participation in government
- Centre-right VVD without further Wilders coalitions
- Christian Democrats staging a dramatic comeback under Henri Bontenbal
- GreenLeft-Labour bloc demonstrating third position behind PVV and CDA
The Dutch election is more than partisan uncertainty; maybe it is even a turning point for the democratic destiny of the country. With 27 parties contesting and voters voting in the last moment in an increasingly fragmented system, Dutch democracy stands oddly in the balance as the country struggles with the accelerated normalization of far-right discourse and its ramifications.