The nuclear confrontation between Iran and the West has entered a critical point when the European powers are about to unleash their strongest diplomatic weapon. As the uranium enrichment program in Tehran gains momentum at an unprecedented rate, the scene is being set up to invite a high-stakes conflict that might rewrite Middle Eastern geopolitics in a way it will always be remembered.
European powers in the activation of the nuclear sanctions mechanism
Thursday saw Germany, France, and the United Kingdom file a formal letter to the UN Security Council, which initiated 30 days of automatically reimposing comprehensive sanctions on Iran. The so-called snapback mechanism is the biggest spiral of the nuclear crisis since the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action was signed. This diplomatic instrument enables the three European countries to reinstate all the past UN sanctions without the need to vote on a new Security Council resolution.
The European powers had kept the sanctions in remission for almost ten years in the hope of preserving the diplomatic links with Tehran. However, the new weightlifting diplomacy failed to achieve the required commitment of the Iranian negotiators. The snapback sanctions were endorsed by the US Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, who referred to them as a direct reaction to the Iranian persistence in flouting its nuclear obligations.
Why Iran is threatening to stop nuclear inspections
Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi threatened to stop all collaboration with the International Atomic Energy Agency in the case of snapback sanctions. Should they choose to go to snapback, then it would not make any sense that Iran should persist in cooperating with the IAEA, he said in an interview with Iranian state television. The recent state of affairs poses peculiar challenges in contrast to previous nuclear crises with Iran.
What occurs in the thirty-day countdown?
The snapback process opens up a window of 30 days, after which Iran can possibly take a U-turn and escape complete restoration of international sanctions. German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul stated that snapback is not the conclusion of the diplomatic process, and may be the first stage of a new phase of talks. The European powers want Iran to show maximum cooperation to the IAEA and agree to direct negotiations with the US.
The currency of Iran, the rial, already weakened on Thursday when investors predicted that sanctions would be reimposed. The total action would involve an overall arms embargo, as well as sanctions on Iranian individuals and organizations. Such sanctions would have a devastating effect on the already ailing Iranian economy and would further isolate the nation globally. There has been little give in the approach to the European decision, which was condemned by the Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi as unfair and unlawful.
How this crisis differs from previous standoffs
The recent state of affairs poses peculiar challenges in contrast to previous nuclear crises with Iran. Since President Trump withdrew in 2018, the 2015 framework has been grossly undermined. Iran has been consistently over-enriching uranium, taking the nation nearer to the production possibilities of weapons-grade material. The diplomatic situation has also been complicated by recent Israeli and US military attacks on Iranian nuclear plants. These attacks destroyed vital infrastructure, and the parliament in Iran enacted a law limiting access by the IAEA.
In the next 30 days, we will know whether diplomatic pressure can be effective when military threats have not worked, or whether the Middle East will experience an even more deadly nuclear crisis. The non-proliferation and regional stability programs around the world simply could not have greater interests in the nuclear initiative developing rapidly within Iran and the potential impacts it has on global mechanisms of regulating it.