Russia’s use of hybrid tactics, from drone incursions to cyber sabotage, is increasingly testing the security and political will of Europe. Poland, Denmark, and Norway have recently experienced alarming episodes that indicate the Kremlin’s attempt to unravel NATO and the EU members without direct military force.
Notable among the recent episodes is the overnight breach of Polish airspace by 19 Russian drones, which Poland claims were shot down after crossing from Ukraine and Belarus.
Flights of drones lead to the closure of borders and the deployment of defense systems
The breach compelled Polish authorities to close the border with Belarus and demand an urgent and substantial response from the EU. Polish MEP Krzysztof Hetman has been arguing for an enhanced allied airspace presence, more air defenses, and tougher sanctions.
“The Kremlin wants to see whether NATO will hold and whether the EU will act as one. It is on… tougher sanctions and taking the lead of campaigns in rebutting disinformation.”
Hetman aims to be the one to push for streamlined equipment delivery and reinforced EU disinformation response systems.
In response, the EU has accelerated its SAFE program, which is a €150 billion plan to strengthen defense sectors. Poland will receive €43.7 billion to improve military weapons onshore, as well as armored fighting vehicles and air defense systems. The recent solidified sanctions against Russia culminated from its invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, with an unprecedented shift in defense policies in Europe.
Only a few days after the Polish drone incident, the airports in Copenhagen and Oslo experienced a similar hybrid episode. The sudden presence of large, unidentified drones over the airspaces prompted the two airports to convene and close airport operations for close to four hours. The drones came from different directions, their lights flickering and disappearing completely. Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen called this the most serious attack on Danish critical infrastructure to date.
Authorities believe drones are launched from boats located in the Øresund Strait, which is a busy waterway between Denmark and Sweden. None has announced responsibility for the actions taken, but the recent drone strikes, cyber intrusions, and airspace violations have led many to believe Russia is involved. Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky placed the blame solely on Moscow, but did not provide evidence.
Over the lines of conflict: Cyber sabotage and disinformation
In addition to physical violations, Europe is still recovering from the major cyber attacks that have affected central operating systems for various airports, including Heathrow, Brussels, Berlin, and Dublin. These targeted attacks highlight Europe’s reliance on the systems of third parties and raise deeper issues of the insurance marketplace, liability, and operational resiliency.
Security analysts are concerned with the melding of disparate types of attacks using drones, cyber, and information to construct what is termed a hybrid operation, which is becoming harder to classify. They shift the boundaries from acts of sabotage to declared acts of warfare, which causes the most friction to the legal and insurance systems.
Europe’s strategic response: The “drone wall”
The Commission is in the process of developing coordinated networks of radars, jammers, and interceptors. This network, referred to as the “drone wall,” will be stationed on the eastern border of the European Union alongside Denmark, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Finland, Poland, Romania, and Bulgaria. Poland is expected to be the prime beneficiary, with funding coming from the EU defense loan program.
It is now inescapable that Russia’s actions have become unmasked and lost the subtleties of an indirect approach. The rift in European military geopolitics, which has boundaries of European nations, has shifted. It is necessary to respond to the change in political resolve, alignment, and strategic foresight with unity and resilience.