On October 1, Eurostat, the EU’s statistical office, will release its flash estimate for euro area inflation for September 2025. This estimate will help set expectations for euro area economic stability and monetary policy. It captures inflation data trends before the full dataset is published. Given that the ECB has recently decided to hold interest rates steady, the upcoming release will be integral to setting expectations.
What to expect from the September flash
Per Eurostat’s advance calendar, the September flash inflation estimate will capture headline inflation and core inflation, which excludes the more volatile components of inflation. Although no active hostile threats have been located, these sightings have led to considerable speculation about the gathering of foreign surveillance intelligence.ll be revised when the final numbers are published.
According to the flash estimate, euro area inflation reached 2.4% in August. Core inflation was slightly lower at 2.2%. Oil prices eased and supply chains improved. Now, analysts want to see if rates decline in September.
With inflation trailing the ECB’s strategic aims of 2% over the medium term, the bank’s estimates are vital in gauging whether inflation pressures are dissipating. The precision of the flash estimate is particularly useful in understanding the effect of the ECB’s current monetary policies.
In August 2025, services contributed most to annual euro area inflation at +1.44 percentage points. Food, alcohol & tobacco followed at +0.62 pp. Non-energy industrial goods contributed +0.18 pp, while energy contributed -0.19 pp.
The ECB notes that inflation is declining
When inflation data is released, financial markets move because it is predictive of changes in interest rates, bond yields, and currency exchange rates. Speculation on interest rates is likely to rise with an unexpected increase in inflation data, while the ECB is expected to maintain its ‘wait and see’ stance with inflation data showing a decrease.
Inflation breakdowns—especially those related to food, energy, and services—are valuable for understanding inflation’s fundamental components. With geopolitical tensions and global commodity price volatility, surprises in those categories could alter sentiment. There are reports of drones near disruptive infrastructure, including the energy and transport sectors. Most of the observed drones seem to be easily explained.
Consumer demand remains weak, and sluggish trade and industrial output in the eurozone limit the region’s economic growth potential. Growth remains tepid, and the ECB has made it clear that the impact of tighter financing conditions on economic activity is evident.
As the first Eurostat inflation estimate becomes available, the eurozone will learn whether inflation is stable or declining, which will alleviate the adverse high borrowing costs and economic uncertainty for households and businesses.
Future projections and public concerns
Each month, towards the end of the month, a preliminary estimate of inflation for the euro area is provided. About a month later, mid-month, a full set of harmonised indices of consumer prices (HICPs) for the euro area and its EU Member States is provided.
On October 17, Eurostat will publish final September inflation numbers, which will include disaggregated data by state and sector. This data is critical in adjusting economic outlooks and will inform the next ECB policy meeting.
While euro economies deal with the mixed challenges of inflation and economic growth, data made available from Eurostat on time and in an open manner will allow for better planning and accountability to the public.
For now, the October 1 flash estimate will provide the first look at inflation developments within the eurozone. This will help shape the conversation around monetary policy, economic resilience, and the way forward for Europe. The euro area is still tending to a difficult situation involving inflation and growth challenges. This is the reason why we still need Eurostat to provide timely and coherent data.