Although there is still no expectation of an end to the conflicts between Russia and Ukraine, many European leaders are already working on a coalition for a post-war scenario. In Paris, French President Emmanuel Macron gathered heads of state and representatives from 26 countries to align a commitment to Ukraine after the end of the war: Form a coalition as a protective measure and to guarantee the integrity and security of Ukraine once the fighting ceases.
A collective commitment for the “next day”
The meeting, held in Paris, was attended by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and European leaders, who reached a common agreement on the need to plan a post-war security future for Ukraine. The coalition, made up mostly of European countries but also including Canada, Australia, and Japan, intends to send training and surveillance forces, as well as provide equipment and aerial surveillance.
The idea is to create an international force capable of operating by land, sea, and air, with the primary objective of preventing further Russian attacks and providing Kyiv with minimal stability to deal with all the consequences of the long-standing war. With the coalition, the countries aim to ensure a fresh start for Ukraine and prevent further conflicts, maintaining peace in a period when the war is still relatively recent.
Allies take different positions on participation
Macron, however, made it clear that the idea was that the troops would not be placed on the front lines, but would act as a “calming force,” discouraging further conflict. Zelensky called the decision a “first concrete step in a long time,” emphasizing that the measure instills confidence in the Ukrainian people.
Still, not all countries committed equally. While France and the United Kingdom expressed openness to sending troops in the future, Germany and Italy preferred to adopt a cautious stance, indicating that they would only decide on full participation once there was greater clarity about post-war conditions.
The role of the United States and the European dilemma
One of the main points of the meeting was the participation of the United States. Macron and Zelensky held a video call with President Donald Trump after the meeting, aiming to understand the extent to which the American president would be willing to support and engage in the initiative, a support considered crucial for the coalition.
Although there has been no full confirmation, Trump signaled his willingness to cooperate if Russia insists on continuing the strikes after the war officially ends and took the opportunity to criticize European countries, highlighting the need for them to reduce their purchases of Russian oil. He also called for more economic pressure on China, which has been accused of indirectly financing the war.
US support is seen as a significant guarantee that has a direct impact on realizing the coalition’s promise and, whenever the need arises, to implement this idea. Without a US presence, there is a risk that the coalition will not have enough impact to intimidate Russia.
Between uncertainty and hope for Ukraine
Despite the announcement and the efforts led by the French president, the end of the war remains uncertain, with no end in sight for the attacks, and the Russian president has made it clear that his geopolitical goals can be achieved militarily. But the coalition is an indication of international interest in securing peace after the conflicts, giving hope to the Ukrainian people.
The French-led coalition is, above all, a preparation exercise. There is still no estimate of when the war will end, but preparing for this scenario in advance is essential to give Ukrainians hope and potentially deter Russia. The success of this initiative will depend on the ability to maintain unity among allies and the US’s willingness to go beyond words.