Germany is once again at the center of new geopolitical and economic realignments. According to preliminary numbers published by the German federal statistics office and other sources, Germany and China had a trade value of around €163.4 billion in the first 8 months of 2025. This amount exceeded the value of trade Germany had with the United States, which stood around €162.8 billion.
This situation is in stark contrast to 2024
The U.S. re-established its position as Germany’s main trading partner, a title China held for 8 consecutive years.
It is clear, based on the figures, that Germany is trading more with China than with its traditional trans-Atlantic partner. This is more than just a statistical oddity. It signals more profound fundamental changes that are occurring in supply chains, strategic dependencies, and the range of tariffs that will be invoked.
Analysts say one of the biggest reasons for the change was the U.S. government’s reinstatement of tariffs. In the first 8 months of 2025, German exports to the U.S. went down almost 7.4% to around €99.6 billion. Just in August, exports to the U.S. decreased 23.5% compared to August of the previous year.
German exports to China also decreased during the same period, but by 13.5% to around €54.7 billion. However, the more significant change was the 8.3% rise in German imports from China to around €108.8 billion. In this case, the 8.3% increase in imports from China was significant enough to turn the bilateral trade volume in China’s favor.
The implications for Germany’s economy
As the largest economy in Europe, Germany has always relied on large imports of premium vehicles, machines, and chemical products. Germany also relies on exports to the U.S. economy to sustain economic growth.
The recent rise in Chinese tariffs, the rise of the euro, and the fall of U.S. exports have shown structural vulnerabilities in Germany’s economic reliance on the U.S. The competitive disadvantage of Chinese exports to Germany will also worsen economic conditions in Germany, as economists fear low-priced Chinese imports will overly fuel German economic reliance on China.
For Berlin, the change in trade balance poses important questions: how to economically diversify, how to protect industrial capabilities, and how to avoid economic and political finalization with a single partner.
The changes happening aren’t just economic – there’s a political aspect as well
Germany’s once-unaltered export model under U.S. guidance faces new challenges. As China’s dominance of global supply chains grows, the export model faces globalization changes. As put by one of Germany’s closest economic advisors:
“Europe is being pulled in two directions – geopolitical loyalty to Washington and economic dependency on Beijing.”
Germany’s political and economic leaders are faced with a new political dilemma. They must recognize Berlin’s historical and military relations with the U.S., the economic importance of Germany’s relationship with China, and the geopolitical tensions and risks that stem from China’s relational power.
The U.S. and China are competitors in several areas
Areas such as trade, geopolitical influence, and military power, and for Germany, the narrow margin by which China recently edged out the U.S., present a new geopolitical challenge.
Germany reacquiring the lead in trade with China, and the U.S. losing out, is a reflection of just how quickly the global trade and economic landscape can change in the face of sanctions and trade policies.
But there are still questions to answer:
- Can Germany turn around its slump in exports to the U.S.?
- Will imports from China continue to funnel in and possibly weaken Germany’s industry?
- How is Europe going to deal with the combination of trade, geopolitics, and industrial energy?
Germany’s trade books still show that China is the leader once more. And this change is more than a numbers entry. The change is to be expected in diplomatic relations, industrial strategy, and global trade.