The IAEA inspection trip to Iran is a watershed moment in the worsening ties between Tehran and the UN atomic watchdog. Since Israel’s unprecedented June military raids on Iranian nuclear sites, and US attacks, the IAEA has been de facto barred from Iran’s nuclear program, leaving a unnerving blind spot in non-proliferation efforts worldwide. Iran’s recent law suspending joint cooperation with the IAEA has only complicated matters, granting any future new inspection to be approved by Tehran’s Supreme National Security Council. The upcoming negotiations reflect the need to re-establish some control on Iran’s nuclear program even while both sides seek to establish an accommodation with the repercussions of recent military strikes and mounting diplomatic pressure.
Diplomatic Talks Without Site Access
A senior official from the U.N. nuclear watchdog will fly to Iran for talks on Monday, but no visit to nuclear sites is planned, Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said on Sunday.
Since Israel launched its first military strikes on Iran’s nuclear sites during a 12-day war in June, inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) have been unable to access Iran’s facilities, despite IAEA chief Rafael Grossi stating that inspections remain his top priority.
Iran has accused the agency of effectively paving the way for the bombings by issuing a damning report on May 31, which led the IAEA’s 35-nation Board of Governors to declare Iran in breach of its non-proliferation obligations.
Iran, which denies seeking nuclear weapons, said it remained committed to the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT).
Framework for Future Cooperation
“Negotiations with the IAEA will be held tomorrow to determine a framework for cooperation,” Araghchi said on his Telegram account.
“A Deputy Director General of Grossi will come to Tehran tomorrow, while there are no plans to visit any nuclear sites until we reach a framework.”
It is important to note the fact that this visit was rather unusual in the sense that the site was not open to the IAEA which is the indication that things went wrong with the levels of trust between Iran and the IAEA in the wake of the June military strikes. The Iranian leaders have always claimed that the negative reports that the agency had made were used as evidence by the Israeli who launched attacks against the most critical nuclear sites such as Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan. Such a perception resulted in the parliament of Iran unanimously passing legislation which essentially amounts to a withdrawal of all cooperation with the IAEA which was the biggest setback in Iran-IAEA relations since the 2015 nuclear agreement crumbled.
Legal and Political Constraints
Last month, Iran enacted a law passed by parliament suspending cooperation with the IAEA. The law stipulates that any future inspection of Iran’s nuclear sites by the IAEA needs approval by Tehran’s Supreme National Security Council.
Although the diplomatic mission of IAEA to Iran is not a practical step in seeking immediate access to its sites, it serves as yet another very important effort to ensure that nuclear supervision does not entirely fail in the region. Nuclear program as both parties seek to build a new path towards mutual cooperation, this poses a tough reality to the international community because it is possible that Iran nuclear facility might be running on a much more limited monitoring system in the foreseeable future. A success or failure on these talks will most probably dictate the terms on whether or not diplomatic ties can hold or the world will be forced to wait a few years more in an atmosphere of uncertainty with regards to the nuclear elements of the Iran situation, and what repercussions this will have on the regional and global security framework.
GCN.com/Reuters.