Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi is on the brink of her toughest ever global challenge in office. She has only days to prepare for face-to-face talks with Donald Trump, marking her first major global summit since breaking the glass ceiling in Japanese politics. This is no ordinary global handshake, and for Takaichi, it could well spell the difference between political life and death.
Takaichi’s coalition change sparks aggressive military expenditure plans
Takaichi has just made a move that nobody could ever think of—not only serving in a government that aligns well with her pacifist ideals, having belonged to the pacifist-supporting Komeito party for 26 years, but breaking away from it to form a right-wing government, replacing Komeito, the biggest obstacle to its aggressive defense policy, with the Japan Innovation Party (Ishin).
The shift frees Takaichi to push Shinzo Abe’s security reforms much further than anyone thought possible. Like her, Ishin wants to revise Japan’s pacifist constitution, strengthen military capabilities to deter China, and loosen restrictions on arms exports. Jeffrey Hornung from RAND Corporation noted that Komeito always served as a brake, but now both coalition partners are pretty much aligned on defense issues.
Nuclear sharing discussions represent a radical policy departure
Ishin has also proposed a nuclear-sharing arrangement à la the United States, whereby Tokyo would have a say in any American nuclear weapons that could remain in the country. This would defy traditional Japanese policy on three non-nuclear principles—no developing, deploying, or hosting nuclear arms—which has remained a cornerstone of its strategic commitment for decades past.
Trump meeting creates pressure for increased military spending
Japan’s Sanae Takaichi faces a key moment for her defense agenda because Trump’s likely to push hard for specific defense spending commitments that could strain her fragile government. Takaichi has signaled she’ll accelerate Japan’s largest military buildup since World War Two, doubling defense spending to 2% of GDP, but Trump might demand even more.
The extent to which she can offer commitments to Trump on defense expenditure will remain limited by her weakness in politics, according to Tokyo University’s Professor Ryo Sahashi. While it has always been expected that Abe will accelerate the military buildup, it is the budget that matters. Whether a government so weakly grounded in the Diet can realistically commit to jumping straight to 3% of GDP for its defense expenditure remains uncertain.
Parliamentary minority complicates ambitious defense promises
Professor Michael Green from the United States Studies Centre highlighted Takaichi’s vulnerability: she’s conservative, wants increased defense spending, and has styled herself as the “Japan First“ candidate, but her relative weakness at home could undermine negotiations with Trump.
Diplomatic baptism by fire puts Takaichi’s credentials on trial
Takaichi’s administration lacks two seats for a majority in the 465-strong lower house, making it necessary for her to seek support from opposition parties for the passage of crucial bills. If Trump begins pressing Takaichi for exact figures, it could lead to initial tensions in their relationship, feels Jeffrey Hornung. Nothing can shock experts more than Trump asking for 3% or 5% of GDP for defense expenditure, given his transactional attitude towards global partnerships.
“She’s conservative, wants to boost military expenditure, and has modeled herself on ‘Japan First.’ If she has a weakness with regard to Trump, it’s that she’s a comparative lightweight domestically,”
Takaichi’s upcoming Trump meeting could prove to be a larger issue than mere government etiquette; it’s also a crucial turning point for Japanese defense change. Takaichi’s coalition shift has triggered aggressive military strategies, although her parliamentary weakness prevents her from making any bold promises. Should it succeed, it will allow her to become a strong leader; otherwise, it will also unmask her feeble government, thwarting Japanese defense modernization.