Israel issued an airstrike on Doha, Qatar, on September 9, 2025. Oil prices only rose modestly. This is considered unusual in light of the recent conflicts, which suggest an international supply-demand imbalance, evident in the minor production increase by OPEC+. With increasing tension across the Middle East region, it will be interesting to see how the fallout between Israel and Qatar impacts the oil market in the future.
Limited impact on oil prices despite geopolitical tension
Israel has stated that the strike on Doha was aimed at Hamas leadership, but Qatar has condemned this attack, further straining the political relationships in the region. With Brent crude at $67.32, with only a 1.97% growth, and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) at $63.59, also with a growth of 2.12%. Despite the geopolitical conflicts, these gains were much smaller than expected, marking the resilience of the international oil market. Furthermore, oil infrastructure and Iranian exports were undisturbed and remain steady.
Luckily, the international oil market is diverse, with little dependence on singular exporters. Due to the supply distribution being indirect, further tension in the region and world should have less of an impact on global oil prices than expected.
Supply-demand concerns: OPEC’s modest move
In terms of supply and demand, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries plus allied oil-producing nations (OPEC+)ย has concurred on a production increase of 137,000 barrels of oil per day, also having been slowly increasing production since April 2025. The OPEC+ group meets regularly to discuss supply-demand to ensure balance. Non-OPEC oil producers, such as Russia, Kazakhstan, and Mexico, also cooperate and work with the group to prevent market volatility.
Projected at 105.5 million barrels per day, international oil production matches world demand, which is estimated at 103.8 million barrels of oil per day. These figures are set to rise according to the United States Energy Information Administration. Despite the risks that geopolitical tensions carry, currently, overproduction outweighs the risks.ย
Diplomatic crossfire as a result of the fallout between Israel and Qatar
According to Qatar, which rebuked the attack on what was said to be a “precise strike” by Israel, a market that has also continued to target northern Gaza in the same month. Both the strikes in Qatar and Gaza have been justified by Israel, stating that the locations were suspected locations of Hamas, using Hamas’s October 7, 2024, attacks to justify the state’s actions. Israel’s actions have been labeled as violations of international and human rights laws.
The Qatari Ministry of Foreign Affairs official spokesperson, Majed Al Ansari, has responded to the attacks by outrightly describing them as “cowardly”.
The United States was notified before the attacks on Doha and managed to inform Qatar. Along with this, Saudi Arabia holds a closer alignment with the United States when analyzing the global crude market and the relations that are based on this trade. These relations assist in providing security in the oil trade, maintaining control over oil price hikes.
Despite these relations, any escalation from Hamas, Israel, or Qatar could shake the oil market, but more importantly, the discussion of a ceasefire between Hamas and Israel. This disruption could be detrimental to oil prices and to the people of Middle Eastern markets.
Highlighting the resilience of the oil market, prices only rose slightly following Israel’s attack on Hamas in Doha, Qatar. There will be less of an impact on the market due to short-term events than due to continued geopolitical conflicts, which will thus shape the supply and demand of oil in the long term. The fundamentals of how OPEC+ manages the supply and demand of the crude oil market can definitely be commended during current events, but disruption in the geopolitical arena will, without a doubt, shake things up in the future.