The current situation on the border between Pakistan and Afghanistan is highly tense due to the complex situation between the countries. The government in Islamabad is facing pressure from a growing wave of violence and has therefore been reconsidering border policy issues, especially after Kabul’s resistance to taking action against the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), an armed group responsible for recent attacks. The two countries have a history marked by distrust and accusations, and now this history is taking on new meaning amid an already unstable situation.
Tensions on the Pakistan-Afghanistan border escalate
Recent months have been marked by recurring attacks by the TTP on Pakistani soil, which have increased significantly compared to previous periods. In August alone, according to research by the institute in Islamabad, attacks increased 74% compared to July. Among the reported situations, there were ambushes, improvised explosive devices, and suicide bombings, and the human impact of these scenarios was devastating.
Islamabad’s response to the attacks
Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif delivered a powerful statement regarding the recent attacks. During visits to military hospitals, he made it clear that Pakistan will not accept Afghanistan becoming a haven for those involved in the attacks, and reinforced accusations that the Kabul government has been negligent in the movement of TTP fighters into Afghan territory. The situation is quite serious, and he emphasizes that without cooperation against terrorism, relations between the neighboring countries could deteriorate further.
This scenario raises a profound dilemma between the two countries. Afghanistan, ruled by the Taliban since 2021, has shown no interest or willingness to confront the TTP, a group with which it shares cultural and ideological ties. This issue ultimately fuels Pakistan’s insecurity, which already faces many internal challenges and fears it will not be able to control the narrative on its own border.
Diplomatic relations between the two countries are strained
Behind the scenes of this turbulent situation, attempts at dialogue between the two countries are still underway. Pakistani delegations have traveled to Kabul and also participated in meetings mediated by China, which is currently attempting to bridge the gap between the two sides. Beijing is interested in stabilizing the current situation in the region, primarily because of its economic projects connected to the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor. However, so far, all these diplomatic efforts have not translated into concrete action against the militants.
There is a common perception that diplomacy faces its limits in the face of conflicting interests. This is because, for Islamabad, the priority is the immediate security of its borders. Kabul, on the other hand, has sought to consolidate its internal power in order to avoid rifts with armed groups that, in some way, comprise its support network. This generates frustration among international allies, who at this point in the conflict were expecting more significant progress.
Nevertheless, some analysts warn that a military escalation, such as cross-border bombings, could further fuel resentment among local populations, who are already historically affected by forced displacement and distrust of the state and its security. There is a significant risk that the border will become a new epicenter of instability.
Internal challenges and an uncertain future
Pakistan, internally, has faced an equally delicate situation. The country has faced large-scale military operations against rebels, especially in the past, but these recent movements have caused significant displacement and distress among the population.
Pakistan’s current situation is a mix of insecurity and diplomacy. Because Kabul resists taking action against the TTP, Islamabad feels its security is at risk. International powers are trying to push for solutions, but the violence continues to escalate. The future of relations between Pakistan and Afghanistan will essentially depend on the ability of the two countries to find common ground.