As relations with the West become more strained, security threats appear to be growing in Russia as well. Over the past weeks, Russia has issued its most explicit nuclear warning and hardening position on dying conflicts. For example, the U.S. News and Newsweek articles discuss how Moscow’s new nuclear doctrine and aggressive rhetoric have begun to alter the geopolitical environment.
A new nuclear doctrine by Putin
As reported by U.S. News, President Vladimir Putin has introduced a nuclear doctrine that lowers the threshold of when Russia would deploy nuclear arms. And, more importantly, Russia would respond violently to not just nuclear attacks, but any state threats, both conventional and “endanger the existence of the state.”
Russia signifies a draconian strategic shift from the existing dysfunctional nuclear posture that considers the use of nuclear weapons in only the most extreme situations.
Putin portrayed the revision in the nuclear doctrine as a reaction to NATO’s encirclement, which shows the identification of NATO expansion as a nuclear use threshold, and any attempts to undermine Russian sovereignty would be met with a nuclear response.
“Russia will respond decisively to any threat to its sovereignty, including with nuclear weapons if necessary.”
This reflects Moscow’s desire to demonstrate its strength while its conventional forces have become stuck in protracted conflicts.
Escalating rhetoric from Russian Officials
Senior Russian diplomats echo Putin’s threats towards Washington and Europe. Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov has said Russia would defend itself against “Western aggression,” including the use of strategic weapons, if red lines are crossed.
Ryabkov’s threats come in the context of the Ukraine conflict and the Russian claim of the West’s direct involvement in the Ukraine conflict, further justifying the Kremlin’s nuclear threats. Russia argues that the West’s military aid and support are a direct involvement in the conflict, justifying their nuclear threats.
Potential nuclear use is a game-changer, and Russian officials understand this. For the first time in a long time, Russian doctrine allows the use of nuclear weapons in times of crisis. This also allows Russian officials to exercise their nuclear options without the fear of Western retaliation, raising global security risks.
Volatility in the U.S.-Russian relationship and the nuclear arms treaty has substantially increased
Volatility in the U.S.-Russian relationship and the nuclear arms treaty has substantially increased the risks of a direct US-Russian conflict, with the most important treaties either suspended, expired, or obsolete.
The digital environment is as unstable as it has been since the Cold War.
Western countries have criticized Russia’s claims and have called for Russia to exercise diplomacy while re-stating their commitment to deterrence.
NATO representatives offer reassurance that the alliance’s focus remains defensive, but they also do not deny that there are serious threats from Russia.
Defense strategists warn that there are risks of nuclear confrontation
Defense strategists warn that there are risks of an uncontrolled nuclear confrontation if the conflict remains unresolved and diplomatic deadlocks continue.
Russia’s combination of nuclear, political, and economic dominance, along with increasing geopolitical isolation, suggests a higher risk of Russia using coercive nuclear threats, along with more reckless nuclear coercive posturing.
The nuclear threats from Russia are intended to signal dominance and compel the West to withdraw, as stated by both U.S News and Newsweek.
Whether or not that goal is accomplished, or there is an escalated conflict, will depend on the top global powers over the next few months. It is clear that the global focus over the next few months will involve direct geopolitical negotiations that include nuclear threats. The risk of conflict and failure of diplomacy, is higher than it has ever been.