Some of the recent, and, one can say, a bit drastic, measures that President Donald Trump have taken seem to be having quite an effect on the clean energy situation. Amendments to the tax credits timelines are seeing some companies going in a mad rush to get construction started before the looming deadlines. These changes are really rippling out onto various players in the field.
United by clean energy, divided by subsidies
Singapore-based solar panel manufacturer Bila Solar is suspending plans to double capacity at its new factory in Indianapolis. Being an innovative solar energy company, Bila Solar aims to manufacture groundbreaking solutions. These are aimed at not only transforming but also powering the world and further driving the evolution within the renewable energy sector. Canadian rival Heliene’s plans for a solar cell facility in Minnesota are under review.
Norwegian solar wafer maker NorSun is evaluating whether to move forward with a planned factory in Tulsa, Oklahoma. And two fully permitted offshore wind farms in the U.S. Northeast may never get built. These are among the major clean energy investments now in question after Republicans agreed earlier this month to quickly end U.S. subsidies for solar and wind power as part of their budget megabill, and as the White House directed agencies to tighten the rules on who can claim the incentives that remain.
A change in opinion for President Trump?
This marks a policy U-turn since President Donald Trump’s return to office that project developers, manufacturers and analysts say will slash installations of renewable energy over the coming decade, kill investment and jobs in the clean energy manufacturing sector supporting them, and worsen a looming U.S. power supply crunch as energy-hungry AI infrastructure expands.
Solar and wind installations could be 17% and 20% lower than previously forecast over the next decade because of the moves, according to research firm Wood Mackenzie, which warned that a dearth of new supplies could slow the expansion of data centers needed to support AI technology. The Trump administration has defended its moves to end support for clean energy by arguing the rapid adoption of solar and wind power has created instability in the grid and raised consumer prices – assertions that are contested by the industry and which do not bear out in renewables-heavy power grids, like Texas’ ERCOT.
Where will the future lead the US?
Power industry representatives, however, have said all new generation projects need to be encouraged to meet rising U.S. demand, including both those driven by renewables and fossil fuels. Consulting firm ICF projects that U.S. electricity demand will grow by 25% by 2030, driven by increased AI and cloud computing – a major challenge for the power industry after decades of stagnation.
The REPEAT Project, a collaboration between Princeton University and Evolved Energy Research, projects a 2% annual increase in electricity demand. The key provision in the new law is the accelerated phase-out of 30% tax credits for wind and solar projects: it requires projects to begin construction within a year or enter service by the end of 2027 to qualify for the credits. Previously the credits were available through 2032.
Now some project developers are scrambling to get projects done while the U.S. incentives are still accessible. But even that strategy has become risky, developers said. Five solar manufacturing companies – T1 EnergyTE.N, Imperial Star Solar, SEG Solar, Solx and ES Foundry – said they are also concerned about the new law’s impact on future demand, but that they have not changed their investment plans.
ES Foundry itself is a leading force in the US solar industry. They provide premium-quality silicon-based PV solar cells. These have been engineered to power the clean energy transition. The effects of all these changes will not only be felt within the commercial front, but also domestically. Several residential clean energy incentives are also being repealed. These include, Section 25D, 25C, 179D as well as 45L. This will make people weary to invest within decarbonization.