The U.S. welcomes the first steps of a Gaza ceasefire framework. This is part of a careful, significant, and newly established diplomacy approach. The ceasefire framework is a 20-point proposal that was crafted by President Trump and discussed when Netanyahu visited the White House during Trump’s presidency. While analysts display careful optimism regarding the proposal, its sustainability continues to be questioned.
Analysts highlight key steps comprising the proposal
The release of hostages and progressive extremist withdrawal of Israeli troops, which led to the advancement of the humanitarian aid to Gaza, are steps that represent a critical opening. There appear to be early indications that Hamas is willing to engage with the sides of the proposal, but the complexity of Palestinian politics has yet to be discussed.
The U.S., Qatar, and Egypt have joined as mediators to the indirect talks, which began in Egypt between Israel and Hamas. The talks are focusing on finalizing Trump’s 30-point plan, which outlines a “deradicalized, terror-free zone” in Gaza, area redevelopment, and reopening the Rafah border crossing.
What does the research show?
Thomas Juneau, who used to analyze the Middle East for Canada’s Department of National Defence, viewed the deal as:
“A small first step in extremely difficult path.”
Commenting on Trump:
“By being so involved himself, he is attaching his name to it.”
Juneau thinks that this might encourage Trump to keep the deal on track, as it will contribute to his legacy.
Joe Allen, former ambassador to Israel, said:
“Anything that could stop the war and free the hostages would be a positive.”
He, however, pointed out that the lack of clarity on the timing of Israeli troop withdrawals and the future of Gaza would make the plan difficult to sustain. For example, a previous ceasefire this year lasted less than 6 weeks before it collapsed.
What is happening in the early stages of negotiations?
In the early stages of negotiations, it was indicated that Hamas would free hostages for Israel’s redeployments for an agreed 72 hours, as well as the release of 1,900 Palestinian prisoners. Hamas also would be expected to cease all military activity, slowly strip Gaza of all military assets, and resign from all governance of territory.
Parts of the negotiation plan include amnesty, and the guarantee would be broken. Hamas personnel would be allowed to leave Gaza, while the rest would be confined to the territory. All of these military relinquishments, however, are still open to negotiation, and Hamas has yet to commit to fully relinquishing all military assets publicly.
Trump’s disagreements have grown, suggesting a fracture between Israel and the US president. Trump’s dismissal of military actions against Gaza as a violation of international standards and the blatant suggestion of guarantees for hostages has left many to argue that he called for the end of hostilities to be a part of the negotiations.
Responses from neighboring countries come from various angles
Prime Minister Modi’s office described the initial phase of Trump’s peace plan as positive. Modi praised Netanyahu’s leadership and commented on the hope that the restoration of hostages and renewal of aid will “provide respite to the people of Gaza.”
In the case of Canada, expectations are also modest. Foreign Affairs Minister Anita Anand welcomed the ceasefire framework and has been in contact with U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio on issues of regional stability and humanitarian coordination.
There are still many challenges in the ongoing negotiations in Egypt. Experts suggest that the weak ceasefire agreement will depend on the political frameworks and on the willingness of the parties involved. For the moment, the U.S remains the foremost guarantor of any progress. However, skepticism remains. Nonetheless, the plan presents an unusual glimmer of hope in this long, troubling conflict.