The World Trade Organization (WTO) has unveiled its first strategic plan in the world, and with it, has signaled a less optimistic look for 2026. Considering the restraints in place because of Trump’s tariffs, the WTO predicts a significant slowdown in the growth of global trade in goods. Although in 2025, a trade volume increase of 5.5% due to AI stockpiling occurred, WTO now predicts trade growth will slow down to a mere 0.5% for 2026 instead of the originally estimated 1.8%.
Global trade outlook and statistics are significantly more optimistic
For 2026, the WTO made its Global Trade Outlook and Statistics significantly more optimistic. In its 2025 outlook, it predicted a 2.4% trade growth for that year, resulting from the robust advance in trade facilitated by:
- AI technologies
- Importation of goods ahead of tariff hikes
- Stockpiling of goods
During the first half of 2025, it predicted a 2.4% trade growth for that year.
Almost 50% of this growth was due to AI technologies and hardware such as semiconductors, servers, and telecom equipment.
The WTO also shares its concerns for growth
The WTO does admit that the current trade CPI cap will drive this growth down significantly.
The World Trade Organization (WTO) says that the slowdown predicted for 2026 will be due to a combination of the global economy cooling and the full-year effects of the U.S. tariffs that were implemented in August 2025. These tariffs stated in the prior paragraph are a part of the protectionist policies impacting the flow of trade, exacerbating the costs of inputs, and adding layers of uncertainty for businesses around the world.
The adjustments of trade policies – How will this affect consumers?
The aggressive return of tariff policies has had a significant impact on changing U.S. trade relationships, even with close allies like the United Kingdom, which must deal with a baseline 10% tariff on exports to the U.S. This has also been the case with many attempts to restore damaged trade relationships. The WTO has estimated that the tariffs will cause a loss of multilateral cooperation that has been gained over the years, while also changing the pattern of trade in a negative manner.
In 2026, WTO economists predict that the costs from tariffs will trigger more trade inactivity due to inflation caused by depleted inventories and stagnant consumer demand.
How AI affects trade in the world
The WTO has predicted that there will be several more trade losses because of AI in the world. In 2025, the world trade volume of AI goods grew 20% annually, with 2/3 of that growth coming from Asia. The heightened level of global competition within the digital economy has led the U.S. to account for approximately one-fifth of economic shifts. This competition has resulted in an increased need for shipping and logistics. In the first half of 2025, global trade increased by 6%, and the overall value of trade increased too.
The WTO continues to explain the tariffs and economic uncertainty as the leading causes for unexpected trade decreases, even when there seems to be a global shift in trade.
Emerging Markets Show Resilience
One of the more encouraging signs in the WTO’s report is the resilience of emerging markets, particularly in Asia and Africa. “South-South trade” grew 8% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, outpacing the global average. This is especially impressive given North America’s declining performance as an exporter.
The end of 2026 is looking to be an important time for global trading.
Technological advancements and growth in new markets provide reasons for optimism. However, protectionism and uncertainty in policies can halt growth. The WTO forecast serves as a challenge and a warning: without coordinated action and a recommitment to open trade, the world risks an extended period of trade stagnation.