Wholesale prices for used vehicles rose 0.7% in the first half of October compared with September, as auction supply tightened rather than buyer demand improving, according to data Cox Automotive released this week.
The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index climbed to 207.4 through October 15, reversing part of a steep slide that began in September.
Index rebounds after weak third quarter
The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index (MUVVI) rose to 207.4, reflecting a 0.7% increase in wholesale used-vehicle prices (adjusted for mix, mileage, and seasonality) in the first 15 days of October compared to September. The Manheim index is now higher by 2.2% compared to October 2025, rebounding after the softening seen in the third quarter of the year.
The rebound followed a rough September, when the Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index declined to 205.9 in September, down 0.6% from a year ago and 1.1% from August after adjustments for mix, mileage and seasonality.
Jonathan Gregory, senior director at Cox Automotive, said that after a September that depreciated faster than normal, wholesale values firmed in early October. The Manheim Index rose 0.7% to 207.4 through mid-month, but prices didn’t climb.
Non-adjusted values still fell 2%, a pace October generally brings. Much of the 2.2% year-over-year gain reflects an easy comparison.
Leaner inventory, not stronger buying
Gregory said supply, not demand, appears to be what slowed depreciation. Wholesale days’ supply fell from 28.7 to 28.2 days, and the gap compared to last year narrowed from 2.5 days to about one day.
Dealer demand remained roughly flat, with sales conversion only slightly above last year and retention easing. The firmer values reflect leaner inventory rather than stronger buying.
The Cox Automotive report comes after a third quarter in which depreciation ran well ahead of normal seasonal patterns.
The September results capped a quarter in which depreciation accelerated amid higher fuel costs, rising interest rates and broader economic pressure. That prompted Cox Automotive to trim its full-year outlook.
Despite resilient demand for used vehicles, Cox Automotive lowered its year-end outlook and now expects the Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index to finish 2026 up approximately 0.2% year over year, down from the 2% increase forecast in July, which is below last year’s increase of 0.4% and the long-term average of 2.3%.
Fuel-efficient vehicles pull away from the pack
The mix of what’s holding values up is shifting. EVs have outperformed all year on sustained demand for fuel-efficient vehicles, but so far this month, Non-EV values rose 0.7% while EVs slipped 0.7%. EVs remain up 6.8% year over year, though momentum is fading as more off-lease EVs come to market.
That efficiency divide has become one of the defining stories of the wholesale market this year. Wholesale values for vehicles rated below 15 mpg fell 15% since the start of 2026, while those rated 40 mpg or higher gained almost 10%, according to Cox Automotive.
Vehicles rated below 15 mpg lost 15% of their value over that period, and those rated 15 to 19 mpg lost almost 9%, according to Jonathan Gregory, senior director of Economic and Industry Insights, in the report, with their declines dragging the Manheim Index down overall.
Fuel efficiency and affordability continue to drive segment performance, Gregory said, as EVs and non-EVs alike respond to shifting buyer priorities.
What it means for shoppers and dealers
The wholesale firming has not yet translated into clearly rising retail prices. Separate tracking from Carfax found that the average price for all used vehicles on Carfax rose only 0.2%, or a measly $40, this month.
The divergence between large, thirsty vehicles and efficient ones echoes trends already playing out at new-car dealers, where buyers have been drawn to compact hybrid SUVs and sedans, including Ford’s new certified used work-truck program.
The shift also tracks a broader market move toward EV discounting seen on vehicles like the Audi RS e-tron GT, as automakers and dealers alike adjust pricing strategy to a market where fuel economy, not horsepower, increasingly drives resale value.
